Bayesian yacht tragedy: between the obvious and the incredible

In the early hours of August 19, 2024, the 56-meter sailing superyacht named Bayesian anchored just 300 metres from the shore in Porticello cove (15 km from Palermo, Sicily) sank in a matter of minutes

Only 15 out of 22 people made it to the life raft. The tragic event caused a real storm in the yachting community, and not without reason. 

Firstly, even if the yacht built by legendary Italian shipyard, Perini Navi, is not “unsinkable”(as the shipbuilder insists), there is no doubt about the quality of her construction. Moreover, the boat was not old at all: she was launched in 2008. 

Secondly, nothing of the kind happened to the yachts that were anchored in the same cove not far from the Bayesian. 

Thirdly, the superyacht owner and his associates who perished on board the Bayesian, were, without any irony, the people “widely known within a narrow circle”. 

Lastly, the circumstances of their lives before the tragedy, coupled with the factors listed above, gave rise to a torrent of versions – from quite plausible to conspiracy theories. 

Seven people became victims of the tragedy: 

- Michael Lynch, owner of the Bayesian, “Britain’s Bill Gates”, who wanted to celebrate the dismissal of a multi-billion-pound fraud charge, for which he had faced up to 20 years in prison; 

- Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, who joined her father to unwind before starting her studies at Oxford; 

- Lynch’s American lawyer and friend, Christopher Morvillo and his wife, Neda Nassiri, a jewelry designer; 

- chairman of Morgan Stanley International and Lynch’s key defense witness, Jonathan Bloomer, and his wife, Judy Bloomer; 

- Recaldo Thomas, chef of the vessel. 

What happened in Porticello port? 

At about 8:30 pm on August 18 the Bayesian dropped anchor in Porticello, a fishing village on the northern coast of Sicily, about 300 metres from the shore.  The sea was calm, but there was bad weather moving south, from the Gulf of Naples. At about midnight the Italian Coast Guard put out a warning for a storm with winds up to 46 knots.

3:50 am – according to the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the position of the Bayesian started changing, most probably due to the ferocious wind: first 80 meters one way, then 80 meters another. 

4:02 – a camera on a boat in Porticello’s cove showed bright flashes of lightning. 

4:06 – last signal from the AIS. 

Between 4:30 and 5:00 am the Bayesian sank presumable due to the waterspout formed in the cove. 15 people managed to escape with the help of a life raft: six passengers (including a one-year old girl), the captain and eight crew members. 

4:34 – Karsten Borner, captain of the 42-metre Sir Robert Baden Powel yacht anchored not far from the Bayesian saw a red emergency flare, which indicated the location of the life raft. The crew of Sir Robert Baden Powel helped the survivors till the coast guards arrived. Karsten Borner noticed that the Bayesian disappeared under the water very fast. 

Early investigation

Initial examination of the Bayesian lying at the depth of 50 m was carried out with the help of divers and remotely controlled underwater equipment. According to the data that is available today, the hull, the superstructure and the mast (despite numerous speculations on the topic) have no visual external damage. The body of the vessel’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, was discovered in the water not far from the sunk boat. The other six had been reported missing for a few days, until the divers discovered their bodies in the cabins below deck.   

Early in December 2024 it became known that there is a plan to raise the Bayesian in the middle of January-early February 2025. Eight different teams of experts are working on the operation. As the yacht is the main and crucial evidence, the biggest challenge is to raise and transfer her to forensic scientists without changing anything about her state. Depending on what investigators manage to discover (unclosed hatches or doors, structural or equipment defects, signs of fighting the elements, etc.), someone may be charged with manslaughter. 

History of the Bayesian yacht

The yacht was commissioned by Dutch entrepreneur Eric Albada Jelgersma in 2005.  Launched in 2008 as Salute, she became the fifth unit in a successful 56-metre Perini Navi series, designed by renowned New Zealander, Ron Holland.

However, as opposed to her predecessors, the Salute had only one mast, which was one of the tallest in the world at the time: 72.27 m. Perini Navi’s in-house team of engineers worked on integrating this change. 

In the first year of construction, the owner had an accident: a poorly secured chaise longue on board a different yacht (52-metre Liberty II built by Perini Navi, too) injured his spine. Eric Albada Elgersma remained paralyzed till the end of his life in 2018. As soon as the construction was complete, he sold the yacht to a Dutch real estate developer, John Groenewoud. 

In 2008-2009 the Salute got a lot of prestigious international awards, including the best interior by International Superyacht Society, and the Best Sailing Yacht in the category of over 45 m at Boat International’s World Superyacht Awards. 

In 2010 John Groenewoud offered the Salute for sale. He found a new owner four years later, and in December 2014 the yacht was bought for about 30 million euro by Revtom Ltd company, belonging to Angela Bacares, the wife of one of the main characters and victims of the tragedy. The vessel got a new name – the Bayesian – after an English mathematician of 18th century, Thomas Bayes. This scholar’s ideas in the field of theory of probability formed the basis of both Lynch's PhD and successful software solutions developed by his company, Autonomy. 

Who is Michael Lynch, Britain’s king of technology? 

People like Mike Lynch are normally referred to as “self-made”. A son of a fireman and a nurse, he went to Cambridge, earned his PhD, founded a company of his own and gradually rose to the status of Britain’s Bill Gates. His success was largely due to the solutions in the field of content analysis and categorization. Lynch was even appointed Order of the British Empire for services to enterprise. 

However, they say that Michael Lynch was neither kind-hearted nor altruistic, but had rather a harsh sense of humour and was a big Bond fan. The meeting rooms in his Cambridge office were named after the main villains of the epic (Dr No, Goldfinger…), and he installed a large aquarium with piranhas in the reception area (a reference to the 1967 “You Only Live Twice”).

In 2011 the American tech giant Hewlett-Packard bought Autonomy for $10.2 billion. However, in 2012 HP’s new management fired Lynch and 250 of Autonomy’s employees, accusing them of inflating the company’s revenues prior to the deal. In 2015 HP went to court. As a result, Autonomy’s chief financial officer, Sushovan Hussain went to prison for five years for fraud. Michael Lynch and Autonomy’s vice-president of finance, Steven Chamberlain, were extradited to the US to face criminal charges. 

On 6 June 2024, after 13 years of exhausting legal battles, something incredible happened: Michael Lynch and Steven Chamberlain were acquitted of all criminal charges. Despite the fact that they still had to pay about 4 bln dollars of fraud damages to Hewlett Packard, they managed to avoid imprisonment of up to 20 years. As an expert in the theory of probability, Lynch himself gave this kind of outcome no more than 0.5% chance. So, he decided to celebrate this miraculous victory with a voyage, together with his wife, younger daughter, friends and some of his “defense team” members. According to his colleagues, he was planning to be back in London on 20-21 August and continue his battle with HP. 

What do Lynch’s financial and legal affairs have to do with his yacht? And why did the tragedy in Porticello give rise to such a huge number of wildest hypotheses? 

Version 1: waterspout 

Waterspout is a whirling column of air and water mist that occurs over a body of water, usually appearing as a funnel-shaped cloud. Compared to huge “classic” tornadoes, it is a lot more compact (5-200 m in diameter), develops very fast and lives from a few minutes to half an hour. The conditions for waterspouts on the night of 19 August in Sicily were most suitable: after a few weeks of scorching heat, the temperature of the Mediterranean surface was above the norm (about 33°C). There were 18 confirmed waterspouts off the coast of Italy on that day alone. 

Deckhand Matthew Griffiths, who was on watch on the night of the tragedy, said that when the wind hit 20 knots, he woke up the captain, who gave him an order to wake up others. It is impossible to get more detailed comments from any of the crew or passangers now, as they are all under strict non-disclosure gag orders. The only comment available from Captain Cutfield, which most likely refers to the unpredictability of the waterspout is: “We just didn’t see it coming”. 

The weird thing about this version is that a smaller and much older yacht (42-metre Sir Robert Baden Powel), which was anchored just a few hundred metres from the Bayesian, remained intact. When the storm just started, her captain was awake and had time to close all the hatches and start the engines. According to his account, the wind gusts reached 70 knots, changed direction sharply, and pushed his vessel onto a side about 15° (and his boat is a converted tugboat built in 1957). Karsten Borner also noted that the Bayesian sank under a really strange angle and in just a few minutes. 

As “locality” is one of the features of waterspouts,  the Bayesian could well have been hit by its pinpoint strike. 

Version 2: flaws in the Perini Navi yacht design (TISG since 2021)

On 31 October 2024, the New York Times published an article, citing opinions of a number of experts in naval architecture and design. They pointed out such constructive features of the Bayesian as a single and very tall mast, location of some doors and hull openings, sunken deck, etc., which, to their mind, coupled with the severe weather conditions, could have contributed to the tragedy. 

In answer to the article The Italian Sea Group conglomerate (including Perini Navi yard) sued the newspaper and commented on its main allegations, reminding it that the Bayesian was compliant with all the safety standards and had undergone the lates inspection in March 2023. The vessel was equipped with the state-of-the-art security and communication systems, as well as rescue equipment. 

To our mind, these allegations just do not seem logical, as in case of initial design flaws, the Bayesian would have got in trouble not in the 16th year of her life, but a lot earlier. 

Version 3: human error 

There have been quite a lot of accusations against captain James Cutfield and the crew in the media. Among others: 

- they did not monitor weather forecasts and did not evacuate the passengers in advance;

- they did not lower the moveable keel; 

- they did not start the engines;

- they did not close all the doors and hull openings. However, any of the passengers could have left a door or a hatch open. According to the captain of the vessel that came to rescue, as well as some divers, all the doors and hatches had been closed. 

It is impossible to confirm or deny whether the crew’s actions were correct and timely on the night of the tragedy. At present, captain James Cutfield, chief engineer Tim Parker Eaton and deckhand Mathew Griffits, who was on watch that night, are under investigation for multiple manslaughter and causing a disaster. One can only note here that James Cutfield has the best references from his previous employer: “He never made any mistakes. He’s one out of a hundred”.

Version 4: murder

The Bayesian tragedy gave birth to lots of theories of thoroughly planned retribution in the spirit of James Bond and Conan Doyle’s stories. But the combination of circumstances does look strange indeed: the billionaire, who had suddenly been acquitted and escaped prison, together with the main members of his “defense team” die on board an “unsinkable” (at least according to the ship’s manufacturer) yacht just a few hundred meters from the shore. 

What makes this version even more horrifying, is the fact that the second person “miraculously acquitted” of the same criminal charges, ex VP of Autonomy’s finance, Steven Chamberlain, was killed almost on the same day – although he was not on board the Bayesian. He was hit by a car on 17 August, while he was out running in his home village in Cambridgeshire, and died in hospital on August 20 of a traumatic head injury. The British police did not find anything unusual about the accident, and the woman who had hit Chamberlain did not leave the scene and cooperated actively with law enforcement. 

The abundance of versions of what happened is quite natural. We do not (and cannot) know all the details of the Bayesian tragedy, as not all facts can be reported to the public during the investigation. Therefore, everything written above does not allow us to blame either the shipyard that built the Bayesian, or her crew, for what happened. Moreover, the history of maritime disasters knows a lot of cases of a fatal combination of the most incredible circumstances and deliberate actions. It remains to be seen what the upcoming salvage operation will show. Although there is still no guarantee that it will help the investigation considerably. In any case, the time to draw conclusions has not come yet.